Four Forces research · Conviction · Capital deployment
Research builds conviction. Conviction directs capital.
exmxc is a human-led research institution organized around the Four Forces of AI Power. We study structural constraints, publish falsifiable theses, deploy capital behind our highest-conviction conclusions, and feed market outcomes back into the next cycle of research. Entity clarity and AI-search retrieval continue as longitudinal observatories.
AI Lattice applies the Four Forces across the AI build-out: 92 companies, funders, grids and governments, linked by 169 sourced dependencies. Every link is dated and sourced; our judgment is kept separate from the record.
Scarcity fails to persist or earnings revisions fail to support the valuation thesis.
The published 88-day recheck found all five highest-conviction sub-0.60 sPEG names delivered double-digit returns; the network layer, flagged as scarce but priced for perfection, declined.
Embedded product and workflow authority fails to translate into strategic value or buyer willingness to pay.
PTC subsequently entered a strategic transaction at $205 per share. The transaction is evidence for the scarcity mechanism, not proof that every system of record is investable.
Federal financing fails, uprate economics deteriorate, or incremental firm-power demand does not support the investment.
The market has repriced the signal, but price action is not treated as validation. Financing terms, delivered megawatts, and cash-flow capture remain the test.
Backlog deceleration, stock-based compensation, or AI-layer risk remains too large relative to valuation.
The candidate did not clear the decision rule. No capital was deployed; the rejection remains visible rather than being erased from the hunt board.
Rejected / no-deploy
Miss discipline: a published thesis that hits its predeclared falsifier will remain here as Falsified. exmxc will not manufacture a “miss” for optics or relabel an unresolved thesis as a win.
Our analytical system
The Four Forces of AI Power.
A connected framework for understanding capability ceilings, power concentration, and long-horizon capital flows in the AI economy.
01
Compute
The chips, memory, networking, systems, capital, and energized capacity that set the ceiling on intelligence production.
02
Interface
The distribution surfaces, agents, workflows, and physical actuation layers through which intelligence reaches users and institutions.
03
Alignment
The control capacity that determines what increasingly capable systems may know, do, authorize, disclose, and recover from.
04
Energy
The firm generation, grid access, fuel, permitting, and power infrastructure that determine whether AI capacity can actually scale.
sPEG and Power Lens support capital research. Entity Clarity and AI Retrieval remain longitudinal projects that track machine interpretation over time.
sPEG Index
A governed research index of companies with durable scarcity, explicit admission gates, evidence confidence, exclusions, and a separate valuation discipline.
First-party longitudinal research tracking what generative search retrieves from exmxc and controlled web properties, with preserved baselines and methodology changes.
Experience sets the questions. Evidence shapes the answer.
exmxc studies structural shifts across the Four Forces, converts evidence into explicit conviction, deploys capital behind the strongest theses, and uses outcomes to refine the next research cycle.
Founded by Mike Ye, an M&A and corporate development executive with 25+ years of transaction leadership at Penske Media Corporation, L Brands, and Intel Capital.
Ella contributes pattern interpretation, structural analysis, and co-authorship. Human judgment governs the work.
